Charts That Caught Our Attention: Federal Reserve Cuts 50bps, Market Receives Message Well
“Economy is strong overall… the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state, and inflation has eased substantially…” this is “a sign of our commitment not to get behind”, a summary of remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following the Fed’s decision on September 18, 2024.
Welcome Charlie Smith
We are excited to welcome Charlie Smith to our Business Excellence team! Charlie recently graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder with a Bachelor’s Degree in Business Administration, with emphasis in Real Estate and Marketing. He will be supporting our growth and reinforcing our commitment to delivering exceptional outcomes for our clients.
Rapid Rebounds: The Swift Dynamics of Credit Spreads and Volatility
At the start of the month, a convergence of factors drove the VIX higher and significantly widened corporate credit spreads. However, since then, we have nearly reversed those movements. While this brief piece doesn’t explore the specifics of the events that triggered the volatility, the recent non-farm payroll report has largely been held responsible.
Charts That Caught Our Attention: Economy In Focus
Charts That Caught Our Attention: Economy In Focus The market continues to move in extremes while the Fed maintains stability in messaging. The continuous repricing of Fed Funds throughout 2024 Source: Smith Capital Investors, Bloomberg (8/15/2024) 2’s have moved nearly 100bps six times since 2023 Source: Smith Capital Investors, Bloomberg […]
The U.S. Labor Market – Uniting the Market and The Fed – A Shift from Inflation
Recent inflation data has shown continued moderation, giving the Fed greater confidence that it is heading sustainably towards the 2% goal. This, however, has been accompanied by softer labor market data and has prompted Fed officials to shift their focus to the employment portion of their dual mandate, highlighting the risks of keeping their policy […]
Smith Capital Investors 5×5
For those new to this publication, it is produced when we identify market themes that are highly debated by the team that we feel are worth sharing. It also highlights our areas of focus. We have structured this as five things we learned over the most recent period and five things we will focus on […]
Welcome Nathan Palmer
We are excited to introduce Nathan Palmer as the newest individual to join Smith Capital Investors as part of our Software Engineering and Portfolio Analytics team.
Data Improves, Fed Demands More on Inflation: The Balancing Act Continues
Markets were set up for volatility this week as key inflation data coincided with the June FOMC meeting. Wednesday included the May CPI data in the morning, followed by the Fed’s rate decision, updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Powell’s press conference in the afternoon.
Why Underweight Long Duration Credit – Credit Curve Steepening
When the fixed income market talks about curves it is usually in reference to sovereign rates. The credit curve gets less attention but it and what signals it may be flashing are the center of our focus today.
Analyzing CPI: Insights, Trends, and Market Dynamics
First quarter inflation prints came in broadly hotter than expected, causing markets to materially reprice expectations for Fed cuts in 2024 from close to six to around two. April CPI showed hints of moderation from this trend, and the recent stickier inflation meant the in-line print was better than markets feared. Growth continues to be […]
