A close up of a logo Description automatically generated

Following the Flows


Narratives have been front running markets for much of the last few months heading into this week’s election. While exhausting (or exciting?), we have done our best to stay focused on the data. Following fund flows for much of 2020, we continue to view – with a high probability – that the large allocations to cash will continue moving off the sidelines and into risk assets over the coming months.

Money market funds have now seen 12-consecutive weeks of outflows totaling -$268.1bn. Year-to-date, money market inflows remain at an elevated +$769.46bn. Over that same time period, equities have seen net outflows of -$5.1bn while all fixed income (driven by investment grade credit) has seen inflows of +$102.8bn. The mismatch from flows of $170.4bn implies there is a lot of cash that still needs to find a home. We believe this continued rotation out of cash and into risk assets will provide a strong tailwind to credit spreads, especially in the 5 year and in part of the curve, as we move through the fourth quarter and into 2021.

Source: Bank of America, Wells Fargo Securities, EPFR/Informa Business, Smith Capital Investors



Let’s talk – Smith Capital Investors  


Our mailing address is:

Smith Capital Investors

1430 Blake Street

Denver, CO 80202






The opinions and views expressed are as of the date published and are subject to change without notice of any kind and may no longer be true after any date indicated. Information presented herein is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be used or construed as financial, legal, or tax advice, and is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security, investment strategy, or market sector. No forecasts can be guaranteed, and the author and Smith Capital Investors assume no duty to and do not undertake to update forward-looking predictions or statements. Forward-looking predictions or statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking predictions or statements.

Any investment or management recommendation in this document is not meant to be impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific individual or category of individuals. Opinions and examples are meant as an illustration of broader themes, are not an indication of trading intent, and are subject to changes at any time due to changes in the market or economic conditions. The information presented herein has been developed internally or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, neither the author nor Smith Capital Investors guarantees that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, nor are there any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use.  It is not intended to indicate or imply that any illustration/example mentioned is now or was ever held in any portfolio.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. As with any investment, there is a risk of loss. Investing in a bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation, default, and liquidity risk. The bond market is volatile. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. The return of principal is not guaranteed, and prices may decline if an issuer fails to make timely payments or its credit strength weakens. High yield or “junk” bonds involve a greater risk of default and price volatility and can experience sudden and sharp price swings.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus, or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value.

All indices are unmanaged. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index or benchmark performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees, transaction charges, and other expenses, which would reduce performance.

This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission from Smith Capital Investors.

Smith Capital Investors, LLC is a registered investment adviser.