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The Current State of the Treasury Market

The market seems to be anxiously awaiting an extreme move from Treasuries. The tone on rates has moved decidedly less bullish as the consensus embraces the view that rates will gradually move higher as the global economy recovers. While we do believe there will be a period in 2021 that takes the long bond back to pre-COVID yield levels (a steeper curve), we believe market volatility remains present in the short-term as event risk continues to be front and center.

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Following The Flows

Following fund flows for much of 2020, we continue to view – with a high probability – that the large allocations to cash will continue moving off the sidelines and into risk assets over the coming months.

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