Research

Fed Hikes 75bps, Data-Dependent Going Forward

Fed Hikes 75bps, Data-Dependent Going Forward 3.5% Fed Funds Target by December 2022   As always, the Fed meeting provided something for everyone! The market expected and accepted the 75bps increase and is encouraged by the Powell-led Fed’s ability to pivot to a...

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5×5 – 1H 2022 & What We Are Watching in 2H 2022

    5 Market-Moving Events in 1H 2022 5 Events We Are Watching in 2H 2022 1. Commodities – Reading the Tea Leaves  1. Inflation – Is Stabilization in Sight? 2. It’s Getting Real – Real Rates  2. Fed Reaction When Inflation Stabilizes 3. How Low Can You Go?...

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CPI Higher Than Expected

    Consumer Price Index Higher than Expected: Confirming the Fed Will Likely Continue Aggressively Hiking Rates and Slowing Growth   The market cannot explain away today’s hot inflation numbers. After registering a reprieve from the Core numbers in...

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Backup in U.S. Treasury Rates

  While there is a lot of discussion about how extreme the backup in U.S. Treasury yields has been, when you put the significant moves (over the last four years) in context, we have had many runs and sell-offs. Much of this is due to the uncertainty related to...

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Reflections from Q2 2022

      Reflections from 2Q 2022 1. Condensed Market Cycles 2. Investment Grade – A Unique Opportunity 3. High Yield – Resilience of Earnings 4. The Market is Doing the Work for the Fed 5. What Happens When the Right Trade Can’t Be Put On   Dear...

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